Dollar index

The U.S. dollar index continued its gains on Wednesday, rising to 102.90; it rose 0.5% in the previous trading day, reaching its highest level since April 2025. Higher-than-expected inflation data and increasingly hawkish comments from central bank officials have led investors to increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at a more aggressive pace in the coming months, pushing the dollar higher. Further reinforcing the hawkish tone, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that a 50 basis point interest rate hike in December may be reasonable; Dallas Fed President Lori Logan supported at least two more rate hikes of 25 basis points each time. Currently, the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting is about 86%; investors have also begun to factor in further interest rate hikes in January and possibly April. At the same time, oil prices rebounded, recovering some of the losses caused by two consecutive days of declines. The dollar strengthened against all major currencies, with the biggest gains against the Swiss franc and euro.

As for the dollar, in the short term, much will depend on whether next week's inflation data once again gives the Fed reason to reinforce its view that higher rates may be needed.
A fresh upside surprise would strengthen the case for further tightening and could help the dollar extend its rally, especially as risk appetite remains fragile. However, softer data could challenge recent gains, especially with U.S. Treasury yields offering little support and speculative positioning showing weakness. For now, the dollar seems to have found a firm footing, but whether it can continue to rebound on this basis is another matter. Therefore, in the upward direction, we can consider 103.00 {integer mark}, and the 103.50 mark area; in the downward direction, we can focus on 102.50 {October 28 high} and above the 102.00 integer level.

Today you can consider shorting the US dollar at 103.00, stop loss: 103.10; target: 102.50; 102.40

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell below $0.69 and was hovering at its lowest level since late March, as weak domestic economic survey data and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the currency. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest in four years in November, while business conditions remained in negative territory, a level not seen in six years, reflecting growing caution about the domestic economic outlook. The data further strengthened market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia has ended its interest rate hike cycle after raising interest rates five times this year, pushing the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85%. The current probability that market-implied interest rates have peaked is 82%, and the expectation of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the end of 2027 has been fully digested. In contrast, U.S. core inflation was higher than expected, rising 0.3% in October; hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials also boosted market expectations for a possible 50 basis point interest rate hike next month, supporting the U.S. dollar and putting further pressure on the Australian dollar.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6850, maintaining a bearish bias as it remains below the 100-day, 55-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which are roughly clustered between 0.7028 and 0.7057. The pair has rebounded from oversold conditions, with the Relative Strength Index (14) back around 41.77, which shows that the strength of the trend is waning, but as long as the price remains contained below these key moving averages, broader downward pressure remains. On the upside, initial resistance lies at the 200-day simple moving average at 0.7056, followed by the round-number mark of 0.7100. On the downside, 0.6856 {early week low} will be the first signal that the short-term control of the seller has weakened; if it fails to stabilize, the door to further weakening will be 0.6830 {Bulli plus lower track}, and even the integer of 06800 will continue to be open.

Today you can consider going long Australian dollar at 0.6836, stop loss: 0.6825; target: 0.6880; 0.6890

GBP/USD

GBP/USD fell significantly during trading on Wednesday, falling back to the area below the 1.3300 integer mark, while hitting a four-week low. The sharp retracement of GBP/USD follows the general trend of overall USD strength. Sterling fell below $1.34 after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted the dollar. The dollar strengthened on Tuesday after Waller hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes and U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in October. Meanwhile, Bank of England deputy governor Claire Lombardelli hinted at the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy and warned that the UK's "low hiring, low layoffs" labor market could make it more difficult to ease wage pressures. She said that unless there is clearer evidence that inflationary pressures are easing, another rate hike is likely in the near future. Investors are currently focused on Thursday's UK third-quarter gross domestic product report, which predicts economic growth of 0.7 percent.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3280, still suppressed in the short term, with spot prices remaining below a tight cluster of 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages. Price is hovering above the descending trendline support area around 1.3375–1.3226, suggesting the pair is consolidating within a broader corrective downtrend, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of around 49 suggests momentum is neutral but stabilizing rather than a clear turn to the bullish side. On the upside, initial resistance lies at 1.3397 near the 100-day simple moving average, and the 1.3400 {round number mark} area followed by the 200-day simple moving average at 1.3417. A sustained break above these levels will be needed to ease the current suppression and open up space to higher. On the downside, near-term support is provided by the 1.3266 mark {early week low}, while the lower trend line support is around 1.3226. A clear break below this level will strengthen the bearish bias and expose deeper losses.

Today you can consider going long GBP at 1.3265, stop loss: 1.3255; target: 1.3300; 1.3310

USD/JPY

Third, USD/JPY continued its bullish momentum, rising 0.54%, and was trading near 159.65 at press time, hitting a ten-week high. Supported by the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar, the pair decisively broke through the 159.00 resistance level as investors increasingly expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further. The dollar's rebound stemmed from hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price data released on Tuesday. Waller warned that if monthly core inflation remains "near 0.3% or higher," then "the Fed may need to raise interest rates by half a percentage point in December." A subsequent CPI report showed that core inflation rose 0.3% in October, higher than the 0.2% expected, while overall inflation rose 0.4%, also higher than the 0.3% expected. More importantly, the probability of another 25 basis point interest rate hike in January has soared to 60%, compared with only 19% before Tuesday's repricing, further enhancing the dollar's appeal.

From a technical perspective, the daily trend of USD/JPY is slightly bearish in the near future, with the exchange rate running below the 100-day simple moving average of 159.00, while staying close to the 20-day simple moving average of 158. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is about 55, indicating neutral momentum, suggesting that the recent downward pressure is consolidating rather than accelerating. In terms of upper resistance, the initial resistance is at the 160 integer mark, which is tightly suppressed by the September 2 high of 160.40. This level needs to be recovered to ease the current correction tone. In terms of support below, the initial support level is 159.00, and 159.01 {100-day simple moving average}. The deeper position is about 158.86 at the 20-day simple moving average; if the daily line closes below the lower boundary, it will open up space for a deeper correction in a larger range.

Today you can consider shorting the US dollar at 160.00, stop loss: 160.20, target: 159.30; 159.20

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is trading sharply lower late in Wednesday's North American session. In fact, the dollar's strong performance dragged down the currency pair, causing it to fall below the 1.1100 contention range for the first time since April 2025, as market bets on further tightening of policy by the Federal Reserve continued to strengthen sentiment for the dollar. Markets will now turn their attention to Thursday's weekly jobless claims numbers and comments from Fed and ECB officials; meanwhile, Falling oil prices and hopes for a deal between the U.S. and Iran weighed on support, and the dollar's losses extended. The dollar continued to be under pressure as the currency "continued to weaken on the sharp decline in oil prices, which helped ease market concerns about the risk of upward inflation. Overall, the latest developments clearly boosted investor sentiment towards the "The short-term energy price shock will help weaken the case for a stronger dollar. At the same time, in the euro zone, lower oil prices are supportive for the euro zone, because the European continent is a net energy importer."

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has broken below key support, but a daily close below 1.1100 is still needed to pave the way for further losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and heading towards oversold territory, indicating that sellers are in charge. If EUR/USD remains below 1.1100, it may drop to the swing low of 1.1050 on May 23, 2025. The next target is the psychological level of 1.1000, followed by the intraday low of 1.0951 on May 12, 2025. On the upside, the first resistance is at 1.1100. If this level is exceeded, the next target is the daily high of 1.1170, followed by 1.1200. The key resistance level above is 1.1273 on November 4, followed by 1.1300.

Today you can consider going long Euro at 1.1080, stop loss: 1.1070, target: 1.1140; 1.1150

WTI spot crude oil

Crude oil prices stabilized above $85 a barrel on Wednesday, but remained hovering near 11-week lows on signs that tensions between the United States and Iran are expected to ease. President Donald Trump hinted that additional military strikes against Iran may no longer be necessary, boosting optimism that a diplomatic settlement could be reached. Meanwhile, congressional Democrats are considering using an upcoming government funding deadline to push the Trump administration to end the conflict. Although ships are still being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, oil shipments in the Middle East have basically returned to pre-war levels. However, the situation remains uncertain: Iran is demanding that the United States ease sanctions and lift its naval blockade before it is willing to participate in peace talks. As hopes for a de-escalation of the situation grow and regional oil exports continue to recover, U.S. crude oil benchmark prices have fallen nearly 20% from their highs in late October, giving back most of their recent gains.

From a technical point of view, the MACD of daily WTI is still in a downward structure. After oil prices hit a new adjustment low, bulls have been unable to rebound, and the possibility of further decline cannot be ruled out. The upper level near $88 constitutes daily pressure. If this level is not recovered, the short structure will remain unchanged; the lower level of $84 is a key low. Once it falls below, further downward space will be opened. Referring to the readings of previous materials, the current price of 86.20 is still close to the 100-day simple moving average of 86.67. Gains and losses at this position can be used as an auxiliary observation of short-term strength. At the 4-hour level, MACD has diverged, and the rebound correction after short-term oversold has not yet shown a reversal signal, which means that the current recovery is more likely to be a technical repair in the downtrend rather than a trend reversal. Intraday pressure is located at 86.67, the 100-day simple moving average; and near $87.50, with support below also at $84. Then there is around $80.00 {the market’s key psychological support level}.

Today you can consider going long crude oil at 85.20, stop loss: 85.05; target: 87.00; 88.00

Spot gold

Gold is currently accelerating its intraday correction, challenging the key $4,000 per troy ounce mark on Wednesday. The precious metal continued its downward trend against the background of a strong US dollar, an overall increase in U.S. Treasury yields, and increased market bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The global gold market encountered significant selling pressure on Tuesday. Spot gold fell nearly 3% in a single day, falling below the support near the key psychological mark of 4100. The intraday low hit $4013.53 per ounce, a new low in the past week. Market sentiment quickly turned from relatively optimistic in the early stage to caution. The direct trigger was the higher-than-expected U.S. consumer price index data in October, coupled with signals from many Federal Reserve officials that they may accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, which pushed the U.S. dollar index to strengthen and U.S. bond yields to rise sharply. For gold, the $4,000 mark has changed from an "integer number" to a psychological defense line for short-term bulls and shorts. Taken together, the core driver of this plunge in gold prices is the combination of the stickier-than-expected core inflation in the United States and the hawkish statements of Federal Reserve officials, which directly pushed up interest rate expectations and the U.S. dollar, weakening the attractiveness of gold.

On the daily level, spot gold is slightly short-term in the short term, with gold prices running below the 20-day simple moving average of about $4,056, but still within the Bollinger Channel. The lower Bollinger track (approximately $3,898) temporarily formed a downward buffer for the gold price; however, the gold price failed to regain its position on the Bollinger central axis of 4.056, and the rebound space was limited. Market momentum has stabilized: the relative strength index RSI is slightly lower than the 47 long-short watershed, and the MACD indicator remains positive; but the average trend index ADX reading is only 24, indicating that the current trend strength is weak. Upper resistance: The first resistance is at the 20-day simple moving average of about $4,056, followed by the integer mark of $4,100; stronger horizontal resistance is at 4,148 {early week high}, and the 4,200 mark area. , this position will limit the sharp rise in gold prices. Lower support: the first psychological support level plus the lower track of $3,876; and the year's low of $3,870. If it breaks further, the bottom will look toward the round mark of $3,800.

Today you can consider going long gold at 3,980, stop loss: 3,975, target: 4,020; 4,030