The escalating conflict in the Middle East, coupled with US President Trump's hardline demand for Iran's "unconditional surrender," has quickly propelled global markets into a risk-averse and repricing mode. Driven by concerns about a protracted war, disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and energy supply chain disruptions, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices surged last week, with international oil prices soaring. US crude futures recorded their largest weekly gain since the contract's inception in 1983, as the market shifted from simply factoring in geopolitical risks to concerns about the potential for deeper impacts on global energy markets and the world economy from genuine supply disruptions. WTI crude oil rose 31.43% for the week, gaining $21.32 to close at $88.56 per barrel. Global Brent crude oil rose 17.52%, gaining $23.62 to close at $90.35 per barrel.

Despite the escalating conflict in the Middle East and heightened global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold did not exhibit typical safe-haven asset performance this week. Conversely, against the backdrop of soaring oil prices, a strong dollar, and lingering speculative sentiment, gold prices failed to hold onto their gains and are poised for a weekly decline.

Meanwhile, a disappointing jobs report is particularly troublesome for the White House at this juncture. The Iran war has driven up gasoline prices, and stock market volatility has heightened concerns among savers and retirees about their 401(k) retirement accounts. The data showed that the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, which will pressure the Trump administration to re-examine military and homeland security policies that further complicate the U.S. economic outlook. However, the problem is that with the midterm elections in November fast approaching, the government may not have enough time to push for a substantial policy shift to improve the economic outlook before the election.

Last Week's Market Performance Recap:

On Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February, indicating a sudden cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, escalating conflict in the Middle East drove US crude oil prices up by over 12% in a single day, rapidly fueling concerns about rebounding inflation, pressure on corporate profits, and limited policy space for the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 453.19 points, or 0.95%, to close at 47,501.55; the S&P 500 fell 1.33% to close at 6,740.02; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.59% to close at 22,387.68.

Despite the escalating Middle East conflict and rising global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the gold market did not exhibit typical safe-haven asset performance last week. Instead, against the backdrop of soaring oil prices, a strong dollar, and lingering speculative sentiment, gold prices failed to hold onto their gains, and the weekly chart is likely to show a decline, ending a four-week winning streak. Spot gold closed at around $5,155, down $110 or 2.09%. Last week, silver prices rebounded to $83.90 per ounce, having fallen more than 10%, and traded lower for most of the week. A surprise drop in non-farm payrolls triggered safe-haven demand, and despite earlier geopolitically driven dollar strength, silver still faced weekly losses. Traders were forced to postpone their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut until the end of 2026 as the US-Israel conflict and tensions with Iran pushed up oil prices, exacerbating inflation concerns.

The dollar index fell slightly below 99 on Friday as a weaker-than-expected jobs report increased pressure on the Fed to consider resuming rate cuts. The dollar still rose about 1.34%, supported by safe-haven demand, as escalating Middle East conflict and rising oil prices disrupted financial markets. Last week, the dollar decisively rose, shaking off the week's uncertain price action. The dollar index reached a new four-month high of around 99.68 and may reach the psychological level of 100.00 sooner than expected. The dollar gained strong momentum as the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran over the weekend and the ensuing rapid escalation and deterioration of geopolitical tensions reflected safe-haven demand in the market.

The euro/dollar has reversed some of its earlier pullback and is now gradually rising towards the key 1.1600 level. This rebound was triggered by the latest US non-farm payroll report, which showed that the US economy unexpectedly lost 92,000 jobs in February, causing a short-term reaction in the dollar. Meanwhile, the deteriorating geopolitical backdrop continues to support the dollar, limiting the pair's recovery. Despite the weak US jobs data, the dollar/yen is still poised to test 158.00, and despite the decline in US employment in February, the dollar/yen is still rising. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut to 50%. The Bank of Japan warned that the yen's volatility could affect the inflation and monetary policy outlook.

The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar in three months, near 1.3250, before rebounding sharply to a high of 1.3390, but ended the week with a 0.64% loss. Global markets were volatile as the US-Israel attack on Iran escalated tensions in the Middle East, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets and the global reserve currency, the US dollar. The Australian dollar traded around US$0.7020 on Friday, remaining volatile and poised for its first weekly gain of around 1.30% since mid-January, as global risk sentiment worsened due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The oil market was undoubtedly one of the most volatile to react to this escalation of conflict. Brent crude surged 11.00% on Friday, currently trading at US$91.52 per barrel. WTI crude jumped 17.00% to US$88.60 per barrel. On a weekly basis, WTI crude has risen nearly 32% this week, while Brent crude has gained nearly 28%, indicating that investors are repricing the risk of Middle East supply disruptions at an unprecedented pace.

Bitcoin, after rising to a one-month high of US$74,000 last week, saw its buying momentum weaken and has since retreated to around US$70,600. However, year-to-date, Bitcoin is still down nearly 19%. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization fell back to US$70,635 in the Asian afternoon session, down 2.2% in the last 24 hours. The rally on Thursday had pushed it to its highest level since early February. Since falling to a low of nearly $64,000 on Saturday due to the impact of the war, Bitcoin rebounded to a high of $74,000 on Thursday, a cumulative increase of about 15%; however, it has since retreated, giving back about a third of its gains.

Last week, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose again to 4.16% on Friday, recovering from an earlier decline, as the continued surge in energy prices, particularly oil, reignited concerns about an inflationary spiral, offsetting the impact of weak US labor market data.

Market Outlook for This Week: This week (March 9-13), global financial markets will see a concentrated period of data releases, including core economic indicators from China and the US, reports from three major oil institutions, and important statements from central banks.

From Chinese inflation and monetary and credit data to US CPI and PCE price indices, from OPEC's energy outlook to the Fed's policy anchor indicators, each data point could reshape market expectations and directly affect interest rate paths and asset pricing. Investors need to focus on key data turning points and prepare for potential market volatility in advance.

The key focus this week is the US February CPI data. Its year-on-year, month-on-month, and core CPI month-on-month performance will directly impact the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and is a crucial variable for market volatility this week. Especially on Friday, the US will release several data points related to inflation and economic growth.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its monthly oil report, corroborating the previous day's OPEC report and further clarifying energy market trends. In addition, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver the opening address at the Financial Stability Board Payments Summit; his remarks on inflation and financial stability are worth watching.

Regarding this week's risks:

Risk Warnings:

Besides core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks:

First, the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the recurring Russia-Ukraine situation may trigger increased risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar;

Second, fluctuations in Federal Reserve policy expectations. If US CPI and PCE data deviate significantly from expectations, it may trigger a rapid adjustment in interest rate pricing, leading to sharp fluctuations in the stock, bond, and currency markets;

Third, disruptions to the global energy supply chain. If the oil report signals tightening supply and demand, it may push up inflation expectations and suppress the performance of risk assets.

This Week's Conclusion:

Besides geopolitical risks, the latest US employment data has exacerbated market anxieties. The February non-farm payrolls figure was finalized at -92,000 new jobs + 4.4% unemployment rate + 3.8% wage growth, marking the US labor market entering a fragile balance of "low hiring, low layoffs, and high costs." The impact on various assets needs to be assessed comprehensively in the context of geopolitical conflicts.

With the dual impetus of rising oil prices and wages, coupled with significantly weaker-than-expected employment figures, the Federal Reserve's policy direction has become extremely difficult to choose, and the economy's sensitivity to policy stimulus has increased significantly.

From a trading perspective, this non-farm payroll data further reinforces the impact of war on inflation and the suppressive effect of interest rates on the economy.

Wage growth, as a core leading indicator of inflation, will be linked to the CPI and PCE indices to be released this week, becoming a key variable determining the central level of interest rates and asset prices.

Under the combination of "negative growth + high inflation," asset price volatility will continue to amplify. Close attention should be paid to the linkage effect between crude oil, gold, and the US dollar, as well as the repricing of earnings growth in the equity market.

Escalating Tensions in Iran: Is the World Heading Towards Another Energy Crisis?

As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, European natural gas prices have risen by over 40%. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for only a month, natural gas prices could more than double. For reference, in the first two weeks following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European natural gas prices surged by approximately 180%; subsequently, wholesale electricity prices across the Eurozone also rose sharply, further exacerbating volatility in foreign exchange markets, including the euro-dollar exchange rate, adding further uncertainty to already fragile global financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world's most important energy transport routes, handles about one-third of global seaborne oil and nearly one-fifth of liquefied natural gas; its safety directly determines the stability of global energy supply.

European Industry Will Be the First to Suffer

If the current tensions continue to escalate without resolution, European industry will once again be the first to suffer, and the entire Eurozone economy will inevitably face immense pressure. It's worth noting that, according to the latest data released by the European Commission, the Eurozone's overall economic confidence index fell to 98.3 in February from 99.3, lower than the market expectation of 99.8. This data reflects growing concerns among businesses and consumers about the Eurozone's economic outlook. Meanwhile, industrial business sentiment data further deteriorated, falling from -6.8 to -7.1, remaining in negative territory and far below the market expectation of -6.1, highlighting the squeeze effect of rising energy prices on European manufacturing. Furthermore, inflation expectations rebounded, rising from 24.2 to a high of 25.8. The persistently high inflationary pressure not only weakens household purchasing power but also poses a greater challenge to the European Central Bank's monetary policy. No wonder European stock markets have been under continuous pressure recently, with investors adopting a wait-and-see attitude and risk aversion clearly rising.

Crude oil prices easily broke through $100 per barrel.

Looking at the crude oil price chart, crude oil prices surged by about 10% at the opening last week, showing a strong upward trend in the short term. However, the future outlook remains uncertain: if the Middle East conflict continues to escalate and tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is restricted for several weeks, crude oil prices could easily break through $100 per barrel, and may even reach higher levels. Even if OPEC increases its production quotas, it will be difficult to offset the impact of disrupted shipping through the Strait on global physical crude oil supply—after all, the Strait of Hormuz plays an irreplaceable role in the global energy supply chain. More alarmingly, if Iran deliberately attacks oil production and refining infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region (there are already initial signs of such events), crude oil prices could surge even more dramatically, further pushing up global energy costs.

Returning to the Negotiating Table; Resolving the Crisis

That said, all parties still have an opportunity to return to the negotiating table as soon as possible and resolve the current crisis. In the United States, with the midterm elections approaching, entering the election cycle in an indefinite conflict would pose significant political risks to the ruling party. Therefore, the US government has an incentive to de-escalate the situation. For Iran, the economic and humanitarian costs of prolonged sanctions and conflict continue to rise, domestic economic pressures are intensifying, and livelihood issues are becoming increasingly prominent, leading to a desire for de-escalation. Currently, the market has not fully digested the worst-case scenario and has not yet fallen into widespread panic; investors are still observing the situation and awaiting clearer signals.

Will the US President reinstate "TACO"?

Regarding whether the US President will reinstate "TACO" (targeted economic or energy support policies) should the market experience a sharp decline, investors seem to still hold expectations, believing that either such policies will be implemented or the situation will be quickly resolved. However, it should be noted that compared to previous regional conflicts, the current Middle East situation presents a significantly greater risk exposure, involves more complex interests, and has a much higher potential for escalation and impact. Therefore, investors' optimistic expectations should be treated with caution.

Conclusion:

The core issue is that even if the conflict in Iran is ultimately resolved, the risk of a large-scale conflict in Asia remains, and in fact, is looming. Asia, as the fastest-growing region in global energy demand and also a region with a high dependence on energy imports, is particularly vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts. These conflicts would directly impact global energy production, transportation, and supply, further exacerbating volatility in the global energy market and adding new threats to an already uncertain global energy security landscape.

Middle East Geopolitics Reshapes the Dollar Market Landscape

At the beginning of last week, the dollar strengthened due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with intraday gains reaching a near six-week high of 98.75. However, this reaction was relatively restrained compared to the risk aversion triggered by tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, investors' core concerns have shifted from the duration of the conflict to whether shipping in the Strait of Hormuz can resume, and whether Trump's previous statement of "military action in about four weeks" will lead to further escalation.

The market is presenting two scenarios:

The market is weighing two scenarios: If Trump manages to control the duration of military action as expected, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will gradually resume, and WTI crude oil prices are expected to stabilize in the $70-75/barrel range; if the conflict escalates and the Strait remains blocked, oil prices could quickly break through $80-82/barrel, thereby pushing up US inflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to adjust its pace of interest rate cuts. The latter would directly impact the Eurozone, which is highly dependent on oil imports, and the euro, which has already fallen 0.3% against the dollar in early Asian trading.

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve meeting in just over two weeks, focusing on its risk priority adjustments. Previously, Fed Governor Milan repeatedly reiterated the need for a 100 basis point rate cut (four cuts) by 2026, favoring early implementation. His core reasoning was the current weak inflationary pressures in the US and the lack of strong price drivers. However, oil price volatility triggered by the Middle East situation may prompt the Fed to reassess inflation risks and the need to support the economy, adjusting the timing and magnitude of rate cuts.

Before last weekend, the prevailing market view was that a stabilizing labor market against the backdrop of slowing inflation would likely lead the Fed to resume rate cuts around June, resulting in a bearish medium-term outlook for the dollar. Following the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling, the reduction in average tariff rates will further suppress prices. Businesses are reducing costs by lowering product prices and raising transportation and insurance service prices, which also explains why US inflation has not met expectations.

The current market is showing signs of divergence:

The current market narrative has diverged: On the one hand, WTI oil prices surged nearly 10% last week to above $73 per barrel, triggering concerns about a rebound in inflation. This could lead to a temporary delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, an expectation that benefits the US dollar and suppresses the euro against the dollar and some other European currencies—these economies are closer to conflict zones and are forced to purchase energy resources at high prices, putting significant pressure on their exchange rates.

On the other hand, calls for interest rate cuts persist within the Federal Reserve. Officials such as Milan believe that current interest rates are "too high and restrictive." If oil prices fall and geopolitical risks ease, the interest rate cut process may still proceed as originally expected, which would again put downward pressure on the US dollar.

If Brent crude oil continues to remain in the $75-80 per barrel range, it will create a supply shock to Japan, disrupting Sanae Koshino's economic stimulus plan. In this scenario, Japanese inflation will accelerate by 0.5 percentage points. The slowdown in Japanese inflation in January and February gave the Prime Minister some policy leeway, but sudden changes in the Middle East situation and oil price volatility may alter everything. As a result, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen to slightly below 158, an increase of 1.0%, further increasing the pressure on the yen to depreciate.

Conclusion:

Currently, investors are reacting more to risk premium fluctuations than to fundamental factors: short-term surges and plunges in oil prices, shipping dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and developments in the Middle East conflict are all key variables influencing market trends. In this highly volatile and uncertain environment, the safe-haven value of gold and the periodic strength of the US dollar will alternately become prominent, while currencies such as the euro and yen continue to face dual geopolitical and energy pressures.

War usually drives up gold prices: But not this time?

Last week, following the US and Israel's military strikes against Iran, geopolitical risks in the Middle East escalated sharply, leading to a large influx of safe-haven funds into the gold market, pushing spot gold prices above $5,400, reaching a high of $5,420.

A US-Israeli coalition launched a fierce attack on targets inside Iran, prompting a retaliatory strike by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, instantly disrupting one-fifth of the world's oil transportation lifeline. Brent crude briefly surged to $85, and European natural gas wholesale prices jumped by more than 40%. This energy supply shock quickly transmitted to global inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to postpone its interest rate cuts, causing US Treasury yields to rise for the second consecutive trading day, and the dollar index to rebound strongly above 99. Spot gold plunged as much as 6% to below $5,000 on Tuesday.

"Gold prices fell instead of rising": and there are no signs that this situation will end anytime soon. In what may be the most uncertain period in recent years, gold's performance has not followed expectations. What went wrong?

Gold price fluctuations are based on complex macroeconomic factors, not a single driver. Precious metals typically rise during periods of geopolitical instability, war, or economic crisis as investors seek safety. However, last week saw a significant fundamental divergence, with the commodity failing to react positively to the intense conflict in the Middle East.

The key lies in inflation concerns.

The US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran's response shook global financial markets and triggered a massive wave of safe-haven trading. However, gold prices struggled to find any substantial support, even falling sharply by 4.4% last Tuesday.

Why has gold lost its luster in the current crisis? The simple answer is that gold is not the only safe-haven asset; investors prefer another: the US dollar.

The sharp rise in oil prices has fueled inflation concerns, dimming the prospect of an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Fewer rate cuts are beneficial for the dollar. And investors seem to believe there are more profitable trades here than gold.

Traders are reducing their bets on further Fed rate cuts.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil and gas shipping route, increasing the risk of supply disruptions and energy shocks. Higher energy prices will be passed on to consumer prices. This will solidify the case for many central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, to reassess their monetary policy stance and temporarily maintain interest rates.

Amid renewed inflation concerns, traders have begun to reduce their expectations for three Fed rate cuts in 2026. The outlook continues to support rising U.S. Treasury yields and push the dollar index, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies, to its highest level since November 2025 on Tuesday.

A stronger dollar and reduced bets on a more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve are providing headwinds for gold prices, although geopolitical risks suggest the tug-of-war between bulls and bears may continue.

U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar are baring their fangs; severely suppressing gold.

Recently, both Treasury yields and the dollar have seen consecutive gains, particularly the 2-10 year Treasury yields, which have risen steadily. This trend is highly deceptive and counterintuitive.

The actual reasons for the recent rise in US Treasury yields are different. The core of recent trading lies in the fact that rising oil prices are pushing up global inflation and threatening global economic growth, which will worsen corporate profits. The overall decline in global equity markets is evidence of this. After oil prices drive up inflation, the market needs higher interest rates to compensate for this and buy US Treasury bonds. Therefore, the rise in US Treasury yields is actually compensating for the increase in domestic inflation.

The rise in US Treasury yields has raised the market's benchmark interest rate, which is very bearish for long-term assets, with gold being the first to be affected. Therefore, it is not surprising that gold has fallen, as the cost of holding it has increased, market risk appetite has tightened, and liquidity has been affected, all of which are negative for gold.

At the same time, as gold is priced in US dollars, the sharp rebound in the US dollar index has also fundamentally suppressed gold prices.

Conclusion:

Due to uncertainty dominating the market: Gold is expected to continue its strong performance.

In summary, the gold market is currently at the intersection of multiple positive factors. Geopolitical risks are at their highest levels in recent years, with no signs of easing in the short term; disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are driving up oil prices, and inflationary pressures continue to build; the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is caught in a dilemma, and lower real interest rates are providing support for gold; restrictions on physical gold circulation are further exacerbating supply shortages.

Trump's statement that "the bigger wave of attacks is yet to come" itself implies that the situation could worsen further. Until uncertainty dissipates, safe-haven demand will continue to dominate market trends. Investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inflation indicators, as these will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's policy path.

Middle East Conflict Ignites Oil Prices: Aiming for $100 Per Barrel?

Early last week, oil prices surged by over 31%, reaching a high of $88.66 per barrel. Following the US-Israel military strikes against Iran over the weekend, the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, leading to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The weekend's US-Israeli attacks on Iran resulted in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and approximately 48 other Iranian officials, including the Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh and the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Mohammad Pakpour.

Shipment in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted; oil prices surge.

The impact of the Middle East conflict on global energy markets is rapidly becoming apparent. Iranian commanders have publicly threatened to attack any ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping route, which carries about one-fifth of the world's daily seaborne crude oil trade. Since the start of the military operation, ship traffic through the strait has decreased by more than 80%, with only one crude oil tanker passing through on Sunday.

Oil prices surged in response. US crude futures rose as much as 12% in early trading last week, eventually closing up 6.28% at $71.23 per barrel; Brent crude closed up 6.68% at $77.74 per barrel. Qatar has suspended liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, and multiple oil and gas facilities in the Middle East have implemented preventative shutdowns, further exacerbating supply-side uncertainty.

The Middle East conflict has directly impacted the "artery" of global energy supply.

The conflict in the Middle East is no longer confined to ground clashes but has directly affected the "artery" of global energy supply. Recently, Qatar Energy, one of the world's three largest LNG producers, was forced to press the pause button after its key industrial facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaied were attacked, leading to a complete production halt. The impact of this event extends far beyond the operations of a single company, as Qatar controls approximately a quarter of the world's LNG supply for the next decade, and its core facility in Ras Laffan is hailed as the "LNG capital of the world."

With this energy stronghold falling silent, coupled with the current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the global market instantly felt an unprecedented sense of suffocation. This not only caused severe turmoil in the spot market but also posed a serious challenge to the fulfillment of long-term contracts, exposing the vulnerability of the supply chain.

At the same time, the tactical intentions of geopolitical maneuvering are becoming increasingly clear. From the suspected drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Rastanura refinery to Iran's claim of missile strikes against three US and British oil tankers in the Gulf, a series of actions have directly targeted the energy lifeline. This strategy has directly impacted the commodity market, pushing crude oil prices to a seven-month high in early Asian trading on March 2nd. With shipping insurance costs soaring, energy transportation costs have been further increased, forcing traders to reassess the true cost of every barrel of oil and every cubic meter of gas.

Increased Production Fails to Solve the Emergency: OPEC's Plans and the Game of Potential Supply Disruptions

Amidst the looming supply uncertainty, OPEC+ confirmed it will increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, higher than some analysts' expectations of 137,000 barrels. On the surface, this seems like a remedy for market tensions, but against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical conflicts, whether this additional capacity can truly translate into market supply remains a huge question mark. If major shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, remain blocked, the increased production may be trapped at the production sites and unable to reach consumer markets, leading to regional shortages rather than a global easing. This situation of "oil being available but unable to be transported out" renders traditional supply and demand balance models inadequate in the current extreme environment.

The Nightmare of Inflation Returns: The Macroeconomic Balance Under a Protracted War

If the war drags on for months, the situation will change dramatically. If the Strait of Hormuz remains impassable for an extended period, Brent crude oil prices could climb and remain at a high of $100 per barrel. This would represent an increase of approximately 40% compared to before the surge in war speculation in mid-February. For industrial production heavily reliant on energy inputs, soaring oil prices mean a comprehensive increase in transportation and manufacturing costs, ultimately being passed on to the consumer price index without reservation. If the war is prolonged, inflation in Europe could rise by at least one percentage point, while economic growth would decrease by a fraction of a percentage point—a painful blow to already fragile economies.

Conclusion:

High energy prices not only erode purchasing power but also tie the hands of policymakers. To curb energy-driven inflation, the European Central Bank may be forced to maintain restrictive monetary policy, thereby suppressing investment demand and further hindering economic recovery. In the foreign exchange market, currencies of energy-importing countries will face depreciation pressure, while currencies of resource-exporting countries may find support, reshaping the global capital flow landscape. While the market currently assumes the war is short-lived, potential supply gaps and geopolitical risk premiums cannot be ignored. Every fluctuation in the energy market serves as a reminder that geopolitical risk remains a crucial variable in financial pricing, and the coming weeks will be a key window for assessing the resilience of the global economy.

Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:

Monday (March 9): Japan's January Trade Balance - Central Bank's seasonally adjusted trade balance based on customs data (billion yen); Eurozone's March Sentix Investor Confidence Index; US February Conference Board Employment Trends Index

Tuesday (March 10): Japan's revised Q4 seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate (%); Australia's ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending March 8; US February Existing Home Sales (annualized total) (thousands of units)

Wednesday (March 11): Japan's February PPI month-on-month rate (%); US February CPI year-on-year rate (unadjusted) (%); US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending March 6 (thousands of barrels); US March IPSOS Main Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI)

Thursday (March 12): Japan's Q1 BSI Large Manufacturers Confidence Index; US January Trade Balance (billion US dollars); US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 7 (thousands of units) US February PPI YoY (%)

Friday (March 13): UK January GDP MoM (%); UK January Industrial Production MoM (%); UK January Goods Trade Balance - Seasonally Adjusted (£100 Million); US January PCE Price Index YoY (%); US Q3 Real GDP Annualized QoQ (Revised) (%); US January Factory Orders MoM (%); US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary); US January Wholesale Inventories MoM (Final) (%)

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