US Dollar Index

The US dollar index retreated on Monday, falling to a low of 98.37 as concerns about an immediate Iranian response to US airstrikes and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz began to abate. As a result, the initial gains in crude oil prices were erased, easing concerns about renewed inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said she could support a rate cut in July if inflation remains tame, echoing dovish comments from Governor Christopher Waller. In response, traders increased their bets on monetary easing, with about 55 basis points of rate cuts currently expected by the end of the year. Investors also focused on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming semi-annual monetary policy testimony before Congress for further insight into the Fed's outlook. On the data front, preview purchasing managers' indices exceeded expectations, with manufacturing and services continuing to expand, although price pressures showed signs of intensifying.

Technically, the US dollar index is struggling to build momentum. The index clings to its 50-day simple moving average at 99.48, adding upside resistance. Key support is around 97.61, the low of the January-June range. On the upside, 99.94 {60-day simple moving average}, and the psychological level of 100.00 remain key obstacles. Momentum also seems weak, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart is 48.60, still below the neutral 50 level. Unless the US dollar index can decisively break through the 99.48–100.00 range, the broader downward trend may continue to 98.04 {June 17 low}, and 98.00 {round number} area.

Consider shorting the US Dollar Index around 98.50 today, stop loss: 98.60, target: 98.05, 98.00

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil plunged more than 9.0% on Monday to close at $67.00 a barrel after Iran launched a missile attack on a US air base in Qatar that caused no casualties, easing concerns of an immediate escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The attack was in retaliation for a US strike on an Iranian nuclear facility but was intercepted by Qatari defenses, causing a sharp retreat from a peak of $76.74, the highest level since January. Although the market is now pricing in a potential downgrade, there are still significant risks, chief among which is Iran's threat to try to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for about 20% of global oil flows. Although Iran's parliament reportedly supports such a move, the final decision still lies with the country's National Security Council. US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have warned that such a move would be "economic suicide" for Iran and urged China, its largest oil customer, to intervene.

U.S. crude oil prices surged more than 4% to $76.74 per barrel at the beginning of the session, hitting a new high since January 17, but now plummeted more than 9.0% to close at around $67.00 per barrel. Investors are worried that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East may push up energy prices, thereby exacerbating global inflationary pressures. This week, oil prices may continue to be dominated by the situation in the Middle East. Whether the technical level of U.S. oil can stand above $70.00 {market psychological barrier} is the key. If the situation eases and the United States does not intervene in the war, U.S. oil may fall sharply to $66.40 {June 23 low}, and $66.00 {integer barrier}, and break down to test the $64.7 {30-day simple moving average} level. On the contrary, if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, it is not ruled out that oil prices will rise again to the $70.00 {market psychological barrier} and $70.94 {9-day simple moving average} regional barriers.

Today, you can consider going long on WTI crude oil around 66.80, stop loss: 66.60, target: 68.50, 69.00

Spot gold

On Monday, spot gold opened close to the 3,400 level, as the U.S. military attacked Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, exacerbating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and raising risk aversion in the market; the market is currently focusing on whether Iran's countermeasures include a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Ali Shamkhani, former secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, posted on social platforms on June 22, local time, saying that even if the nuclear facilities are destroyed, the game is far from over - nuclear materials, local knowledge reserves and political will still exist. The fun is yet to come! On the other hand, investors are closely watching the escalation of war in the Middle East after the United States participated in Israel's strike on Iran. The U.S. military attacked three major Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, and President Trump warned that if Tehran is not peaceful, more attacks will be launched. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have injected new momentum into the market that has pushed gold prices up nearly 30% so far this year.

On Monday, gold prices approached the $3,400 level as the weekend U.S. military attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, exacerbating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and then pulled back to $3,360. Risk aversion in the market has intensified, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart has fallen back to 50, and gold is close to the lower line of the six-month upward channel, currently around $3,330. This level is also supported by the 34-day simple moving average of $3,324. A daily close below $3,330 may attract technical sellers. In this case, the $3,300 {market psychological level} and the $3,284 {60-day simple moving average} level will serve as the next support area, followed by $3,245.50 (May 29 low}. On the upside, the first resistance could be at $3,397 {Monday high}, and $3,400 (round mark), followed by the $3452.80 area {nearly two-month high hit last Monday}.

Consider going long on gold around 3,356 today, stop loss: 3,352, target: 3,380, 3,385

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remained stable in trading against the US dollar on Monday after the market absorbed new geopolitical tensions related to Iran. Risk sentiment briefly deteriorated after Tehran fired missiles at a US military base in Qatar. However, media reports that all missiles were intercepted and no casualties were caused quickly calmed market nerves. With the direct threat waning, traders refocused on economic fundamentals, pushing AUD/USD back above its 200-day simple moving average of 0.6422. Attention now turns to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Tuesday, which could clarify the central bank’s views on inflation, growth and geopolitical risks. Given its strong links to global trade and commodity demand, especially from China, the Australian dollar remains exposed to geopolitical risks and changes in external demand conditions.

AUD/USD is attempting to stabilize above its 200-day simple moving average at 0.6422 after briefly breaking above the lower boundary of an ascending wedge pattern. The pair faces immediate resistance at 0.6460, which coincides with the wedge resistance and the intraday high of 0.6463. A break above this level could open a channel to 0.6495 (Friday’s high), and 0.6500 {a psychological level in the market}, followed by 0.6552 {June 16 high}, with potential upside targets. On the downside, support remains solid at 0.6400 {round number mark, followed by the 100-day simple moving average at 0.6362. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is hovering around 48, indicating that momentum is close to the neutral zone. A solid daily close above 0.6460 will favor further gains, while failure to hold above 0.6400 may expose AUD/USD to new declines.

Consider going long on AUD around 0.6445 today, stop loss: 0.6432, target: 0.6480, 0.6490

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has repeatedly risen during Monday's trading session, rising to around 1.3500. Concerns about Iran's possible retaliation for the US attack on its nuclear facilities have driven safe-haven inflows, which once supported the dollar. The United States launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities early on Sunday, despite US President Trump's long-standing promise to avoid new foreign conflicts. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East and concerns about a larger conflict have driven demand for safe-haven assets, thereby boosting the dollar against the pound. The Bank of England decided to keep interest rates at 4.25% at its June policy meeting last Thursday, a decision that was widely expected by the market. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that interest rates are still on a gradual downward trajectory, but warned that "the world is highly unpredictable."

From the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains an upward bias and is temporarily fluctuating around 1.3500 {market psychological barrier} and the 20-day simple moving average of 1.3518. Although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator shows that the momentum has turned bullish, if the closing price is below 1.3400 {round mark} in the future, it will open up further downside space of 1.3362 {55}, and if it breaks, it will further test the round mark of 1.3300. On the other hand, if the bulls recapture 1.3500 {market psychological barrier} and 1.3518 of the 20-day simple moving average, the target will be 1.3550, and the 1.3600{round mark} area. This would pave the way for a retest of the year's high of 1.3632.

Consider going long on GBP around 1.3525 today, stop loss: 1.3510, target: 1.3565, 1.3580

USD/JPY

The yen fell below 146 to 145.95 against the dollar on Monday, hitting its lowest level in more than five weeks, as the dollar outperformed after a sharp escalation in tensions in the Middle East. The move came after the US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, with the dollar outperforming as a safe-haven currency. On the domestic front, economic data showed that Japan's manufacturing sector grew in June for the first time since May 2024, while service sector activity expanded for the third consecutive month, indicating resilience in the overall economy. Last week, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, noting that businesses continued to pass on wage growth to prices, keeping core inflation at a high level. Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated a data-driven policy approach, leaving room for further rate hikes. There is room for the pair to move down if inflationary pressures persist.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY once broke through the barrier of the 148.00 round mark so that bulls can maintain short-term control. Further buying above the intermediate mark of 147.40-147.45 in the future will confirm the positive outlook and push the spot price to the 148.00 round mark and the 148.65 area, the monthly high in May. On the other hand, any corrective pullback below 146.00 is more likely to attract new buyers and find good support around the 145.30-145.25 area. This in turn should help limit the downside of the pair around the 145.00 psychological mark. The latter should serve as a strong base level for the spot price.

Consider shorting the US dollar around 146.35 today, stop loss: 146.60, target: 145.20, 145.00

EUR/USD

The euro traded in the $1.1570-$1.1575 range, close to the 2021 high reached earlier this month, as investors weighed rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation risks and the outlook for monetary policy. The conflict intensified after the United States joined the war and launched attacks on Iran, raising concerns about a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key bottleneck for global oil shipments, which would further push up oil prices. On the economic front, flash purchasing managers' indices presented a mixed picture, with euro zone private sector activity showing signs of stabilization Germany returned to expansion, while France continued to shrink. Meanwhile, analysts continue to expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, reducing the main deposit rate to 1.75%.

From a technical point of view, the uptrend in EUR/USD is resuming. The price action shows that the "Morning Star" three-candle pattern suggests that buyers are accumulating and are ready to push the exchange rate higher. This is further confirmed by the 14th relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicators on the daily chart, which climbed above 55 after stagnating for two days. Therefore, the first resistance level for EUR/USD will be 1.1580 {the central axis of the upward channel on the daily chart}, and the June 17 high of 1.1583. A breakout would expose 1.1600, followed by the year’s high of 1.1632. Conversely, a daily close below 1.1500 {round mark} would pave the way for a test of 1.1450 {20-day simple moving average}.

Today, consider going long on the euro near 1.1565, stop loss: 1.1550, target: 1.1610, 1.1625

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